I pains me time after time to see runners making the same common
mistakes and be that as it may, I can't help everyone. But I do try to
as much as I can, because I want people to succeed and enjoy running as
much as I do. And I'm not just talking about newbies either. One of
the most commonly violated "rules" of training and racing is how one
goes about determining your pace. I am going to focus on the marathon,
simply because this would be too long to cover other distances.
However, whether for the 5k or the marathon, I don't differentiate the
process.
In order to be a consistent runner, and a
consistent runner is typically the one who gets faster, it is important
to stay on top of the choices you make - the key being not making
training/racing errors. And when I see runners frequently determine
their goal racing paces based on training paces and/or training paces
based on goal racing paces, it makes me want to jump in and say
something. You see, it simply doesn't work that way. If you're lucky,
you don't hurt yourself. Conversely, you can dig yourself quite the
hole.
Let's look at both ways people go about this process and why it doesn't work, and then talk about how you
can determine your paces in both training and in racing.
Determining Goal Pace Based on Training Results
Simply
put, training is exactly that - a means to an end to get your body
prepared to race. The vast majority (approx 80%) of your weekly
training should consist of easy running. So there should be no reason
why you'd be able to tell from your training results that you are ready
to run at a given pace. Some people however utilize different training
protocols (think quality over quantity), so your experience may seem to
differ in terms of the amount of easy running you do. Either way,
running 80 miles/week of quantity isn't going to tell you anything more
than 30/miles of quality. It just means that those 30 miles probably
have a lot more "work" as a percentage of the total volume in the week.
But at the end of the day, they both produce a stimulus and your body
responds by (hopefully) getting more fitness.
Aside from a handful of workouts one can do to simulate a race, no amount of results in training will typically help you
determine
your paces. Now that said, that doesn't mean those simulation workouts
don't have value. Those are critical workouts one SHOULD do at KEY
times to determine if your potential goal paces are in line with your
fitness. However, simulation workouts need only be executed 1-2 times
in a whole training cycle, and not more frequently. They don't give you
the fitness gains you seek from training, so while they serve the point
of helping you determine if you are race ready (physically and
mentally), they don't necessarily make you more fit. Specifically in
the case of marathon training, running marathon pace is too slow to give
you big fitness gains and too fast to serve the same purpose of your
long runs of teaching your body to become more efficient at burning
fat. That is why you should save those marathon paced miles for as you
approach race day in the last month or so of training and not many
months out. Simulation workouts need to be scheduled at strategic
times, so they don't take away from the quality work you could be doing
to give you big fitness gains early on. Otherwise, you should be
training at your training paces.
Determining Training Paces Based on Goal Racing Paces
Let's
say you ran a 4:15 marathon last year and now you really want to run a
sub-4, so you arbitrarily say you are going to train at 4 hr marathon
paces. You go onto the
McMillan calculator
and out spits your paces and off you go training. This happens time
after time and despite many attempts to inform others that it doesn't
work like this, it seems the concept of arbitrarily determining one's
paces is more popular than ever. Even though one might surmise that
someone who ran a 4:15 could improve to run a sub-4 with solid training,
you simply can't just change your paces and hope things work. Your
body doesn't work like that, especially when we talk about the
marathon. The specificity of requiring your body to utilize fat as fuel
is the key here. Below are the 2 sets of paces for reference:
Now,
the first thing I'll note is that the Long Run Pace provides a
difference of about 30s/mile. For most people, this difference will not
prevent someone from hitting those paces. But more specifically,
you'll see that those pace ranges overlap quite a bit due to the very
large pace range provided by the calculator (Quick aside - One of the problems I have with the McMillan calculator for use is that even at 3:45 marathoner still has a range that overlaps with the 4:15 marathoner. I strongly recommend checking
multiple calculators and taking an average, not just from a single source because they all use different algorithms.) So while this person might
be able to run 9:45/mile for their long runs, it doesn't mean they are
ready to run a 4 hr (or a 3:45) marathon. But most commonly, they will be lulled
into the false sense that they can. For many people, the long run is
THE key run of the week. So long as they get this run done on pace, it
seems their marathon training is on track. But the reality is there are
so many other elements, more specifically total weekly work to include
both volume AND intensity. Simply running all your long runs at
9:45/mile isn't going to prepare you to run a marathon at the required
9:10/mile pace for a 4 hr marathon. All that other stuff matters too.
Now let's take a look at another element of running calculators that many overlook in this process -
predicted race times. At the top of each example above, you'll see the equivalent performances
at various distances. So for the 4:15 marathoner, they likely can run a
54:21 10k, while the 4:00 marathoner can likely run a 51:09. Here is
where the math rarely adds up for those who select their training/goal
paces. Did the 4:15 marathoner drop 3+ minutes from their 10k (or any other equivalent distance) in order to justify
the change in paces? Probably not. Now realize, that some people run
faster at longer distances than shorter ones. So while there may be a
discrepancy between a runner's 10k time and their marathon time, most
commonly, runners perform better at shorter distances in these
prediction tools than they do at longer ones. Even still, for that 15
minute bump down in goal time, I'd expect someone to be able to run a
10k closer than 3:00 of what the calculator might predict.
How to Properly Identify Your Goal Paces
So
now that we agree that both methods simply don't give someone an
accurate picture of what their goal paces are, what is one to do to make
sense of this all? Well, it comes down to the planning and laying out
of the training period to make sure one incorporates races and/or time
trials to "prove" their fitness. Want to run faster than your current
paces? Prove it by running an equivalent time faster than you currently
are slotted at and then you can adjust your training paces and race expectations. For the
marathon, you have several options that I'd recommend:
- 5k time trial
- 5ks serve as the perfect fitness indicator. Short enough that they
don't take away from your weekly marathon training, but long enough that
you are less likely to be able to fake your fitness like you can in
shorter time trials like 1 mile, Yasso 800s, or less. While there is going to be a
difference between what goal pace you should predict for the marathon
simply due to the fact that most runners perform better at shorter
distances, I use 5k time trials early in the training period to prove my
fitness and adjust paces based on my performance.
- 10k time trial
- 10ks also serve as a useful measuring stick for marathoners, since
they give a slightly better indication of ones fitness for the marathon
than the 5k does. The 10k may take an extra day or so of recovery from
an all out effort, but it can be a useful tool in the same way the 5k is
- to predict training paces and prove fitness improvements. I like to
schedule a 10k in the middle of the marathon build, after a few 5ks have
been done. This can help validate or give someone food for thought if
any training adjustments might be necessary to meet a goal.
- Half marathon
- The half marathon is going to give a marathoner the best indicator of
a prediction time, as it is the longest distance race I'd recommend
before a marathon. Anything longer raced hard and you seriously risk
compromising valuable training time. A hard fought half marathon, may
take up to a week to recover from, but I find I can get back into the
groove after 3-4 days of easy running. While still never a definite
predictor of marathon performance, you are less likely to deviate too
far from your marathon prediction. I like to put a half marathon in
there 4-6 weeks out from the race. By this point, you are far enough
out that any issues can still be resolved, but not so close to the race
that you compromise carrying fatigue into the race.
So when you combine any combination of the above testing protocols and executing those paces in your training, while also scheduling a simulation workout or two as you get closer to your race, you are nearly guaranteed to know and trust in your paces. No going into race week/day guessing, no race day "magic", no frustration after your race from not adequately preparing for your race. It is nice to go into a race knowing what you are capable of and that you did everything you could do to make race day a success. Without that, you are simply one of those lost souls out there on race day trying to "figure it out". Don't be that be that runner!
So those are the methods I recommend runners use to identify your goal paces. Convinced you're faster than your predictions say? Go out and prove it the right way!